Technical Analysis

 

GENERAL PRINCIPLES

Technical analysis is the study of market dynamics, most often by means of charts, with the goal of forecasting of the future direction of price development. The term "market dynamics" includes three main sources of information that can be used by a technical analyst: price, volume and open interest (as applied to the futures market). The price will mean "thermodynamic" balance between the supply and demand for the specific currency. And it does not matter what caused the balance: estimations of macroeconomic parameters, recommendations of specialists, psychology of currency traders or some other circumstances. Let us formulate three postulates on which technical analysis is based:

The course (price) takes into account everything. Any factor that influences the price (economic, political or psychological) has been already considered by the market and included in the price. Thus, everything that influences the price someway will definitely have an effect on this price. Using price charts and many of their combinations, the market announces its intentions to an attentive analyst that has a task to interpret these intentions in the right way and time. The knowledge of this motivation of market wishes is hardly required for correct forecasting. That is why everything one needs for forecasting is just to study the price chart.

Price movement is subject to tendencies (price trends). The main goal of making charts of price dynamics is to find the tendencies at early stages of their development and to trade in accordance with their trends. Directed movement of the price is called a trend.

Three types of trends (tendencies):

  • Up ("bullish" trend) – the prices go up
  • Down ("bearish" trend) – the prices go down
  • Sideways (flat, whipsaw trend) – no definite trend of prices.
    Three types of trends (tendencies) according to their duration:
  • Long-term (main) – a trend with the term from 6 months to several years.
  • Medium-term (intermediate) – a trend with the term from 2 weeks to 6 months.
  • Short-term (short) – a trend with the term up to 2 weeks.

    Basic laws of price development:

  • The current trend in likely to keep than to change its direction.
  • The trend will move in the same direction until it weakens.

    Main types of charts

    1. A linear chart – plots only the closing price for every subsequent period. It is recommended for short time frames (up to several minutes).

    2. A bar chart – shows the highest price (upper point of the bar), the lowest price (lowest point), the opening price (the dash to the left of the vertical axis) and the closing price (the dash to the right of the vertical axis). It is recommended for time frames of 5 minutes and longer.

    3. A Japanese candlestick chart (is made on the analogy of the bars). The rectangle between the opening price and the closing price is called the candlestick, while the dashes from the candlestick to the high and low prices at any given time frame are called shadow. The presentation is similar to representation in bars. The candlestick with high > low is called a bullish candlestick (White Day) and its body is filled in white (or green). The candlestick with high < low is called a bearish candlestick (Black Day) and its body is filled in black (red). The candlestick, where the open and the close are approximately equal, and the high and low are very different, i.e. the body of the candlestick has a small size as compared with the shadow are called Doji.

    4. A point and figure chart: does not have linear representation of time, a new bar of prices is plotted after another trend appears in the dynamics. A figure is drawn if the prices go down by a certain number of points (reverse criterion), if the prices go up by a certain number of points, a point is drawn.

    5. Arithmetic and Logarithmic Scales. For some types of analysis, especially if it concerns long-term trend analysis, it is useful to utilize the logarithmic scale. In the arithmetic scale the distance between the points is invariable. In the logarithmic scale, a similar distance corresponds to similar changes percentagewise.

    6. Volume charts.

    DOW THEORY

    Initially, the principles set forth by Charles Dow were used to analyze the American indexes created by him, the industrial and railroad industrial averages. But most of Dow’s analytical derivations can be equally well used on financial markets.


    Tenets of Dow Theory:

    1. Averages discount all news. According to Dow’s theory, any factor that can someway influence the supply or demand will be reflected in the dynamics of the averages. These events are, of course, unpredictable. Nevertheless, they are taken into account by the market right away and are reflected in the dynamics of the averages.

    2. There are three types of tendencies on the market. During the uptrend, every following peak and every following fall are higher than the previous one. During the downtrend, every following peak and every fall are approximately at the same level as the previous ones.
    Dow also distinguished three categories of movements: primary, secondary and daily fluctuations. He assigned the highest significance to the primary movement, which lasts over a year, and sometimes several years. The secondary (or reaction) movement is a correction movement as regards the primary movement and usually lasts as much as three weeks to three months. Such intermediate corrections retrace 1/3 to 2/3 (very often a half) of the movement of the prices during the previous (primary) move. Daily fluctuations or short-term trends last not more than three weeks and represent short-term fluctuations within the intermediate trend.

    3. The primary tendency has three phases. The first phase, or the accumulation phase, when the most far-seeing and wise investors start buying, as all unfavourable economic information has been already considered by the market. The second phase begins when those who use technical methods for tracing trends join the game. Economic information becomes more and more optimistic. The trend passes to its third, or final, phase when public at large starts participating, and a flurry that is stirred up by mass media begins on the market. Economic forecasts are optimistic. The volume of speculations rises. That’s when the the most far-seeing and wise investors that were "accumulating" at the end of the previous move when no one wanted to "accumulate", start "to distribute". That’s the end of the tendency.

    4. Averages must confirm each other. Here Dow meant the industrial and railroad industrial averages. To Dow, any important signal of bull market or bear market has to be presented in both averages.

    5. The volume must confirm the trend. The volume must rise in the direction of the primary trend.

    6. The trend exists until definite signals prove that it has changed.

    History repeats itself. This postulate is based on the objective character of laws of physics, economics, and psychology. The rules that were valid in the past function now as well and will function in the future. All interpolation techniques of future prediction are, in fact, based on that. And the future, intrinsically, repeats the past.


     
    Doing transactions with the use of leverage can have a considerable effect on the status of the trading account, both in your favour, as well as against you. Please remember that any professional trader risks only the money the loss of which will not lead to financial collapse. That allows the trader to make sensible and cool-headed decisions. Make sure that you are fully aware of the degree of risk and you are ready to bear full responsibility for the transactions carried out.

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